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Rivian raised the low end of its annual delivery forecast to 67,000 vehicles after the R2 became its best-selling model by volume in the third quarter. The company said it expects most fourth-quarter deliveries to be R2s, while higher production is central to its effort to improve automotive margins. Rivian remains unprofitable, and the forecast is guidance, not a confirmed final delivery total.
Rivian raised the low end of its annual delivery forecast to 67,000 vehicles after saying its R2 electric SUV became its best-selling model by volume in the third quarter. The company reported 19,751 deliveries for the quarter and said it expects most deliveries in the final quarter of the year to be R2s, making production of the new vehicle central to its near-term sales outlook.
The revised guidance sets Rivian’s expected annual deliveries at 67,000 to 70,000 vehicles, up from a previous range of 65,000 to 70,000. The company had already raised the forecast’s low end from 62,000 to 65,000 after its record third-quarter delivery total. The change reflects the R2’s early sales contribution, though the forecast remains a company projection rather than a completed annual result.
Rivian said the R2 outsold the R1T pickup, R1S SUV and electric delivery van between July and September. Interim CFO Derek Mulvey told the earnings call that the company expects the majority of fourth-quarter deliveries to be R2s. To reach the new guidance’s low end, Rivian would need to deliver at least 25,193 vehicles in the final quarter, based on its reported year-to-date deliveries.
The company said it has started a second R2 production shift and expects its production run rate to rise over the coming quarters. Rivian expects the R2 production ramp to help it finish the year with positive automotive gross margin. That target is separate from overall profitability: Rivian reported a $913 million net loss for the quarter, compared with a $1.17 billion loss in the same period a year earlier.
R2 Sales Put Production Under Pressure
The forecast increase gives the R2 a larger role in Rivian’s immediate growth plans. The SUV is intended to sell at higher volumes than the company’s more expensive R1 vehicles and to compete in a broader electric-vehicle market, including against the Tesla Model Y. Its early lead within Rivian’s own lineup suggests the new model is already contributing materially to deliveries, but does not by itself establish how it will perform over a full year.
Rivian needs that volume as it works to improve vehicle economics. The company said the R2 ramp should support a positive automotive gross margin in the final quarter, but it remains loss-making overall. Higher deliveries could help spread costs across more vehicles; the earnings report, however, does not establish that the R2 alone will bring the company to profitability.
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Earlier Guidance Had Already Risen
Rivian’s delivery outlook has moved upward in stages. After delivering 19,751 vehicles in Q3, a record for the company according to the supplied report, Rivian raised its annual range’s lower bound from 62,000 to 65,000. The latest revision lifts that lower bound again, to 67,000, while the upper end stays at 70,000.
Rivian reported third-quarter revenue of $2.1 billion, up 38% from a year earlier, attributing growth to higher deliveries, regulatory-credit revenue and software and services. Software and services revenue rose 45% to $605 million; the report links that business in part to Rivian’s partnership with Volkswagen Group. These figures provide company-wide context but do not show how much revenue or margin the R2 itself generated.
The R2 lineup is rolling out in stages. Rivian launched a Performance Launch Edition priced just under $60,000. A Premium version listed at $53,990 is expected this year, while the company has said a $44,990 Standard version is planned for 2027. The lower-priced versions have not all reached customers yet, so the mix of trims could affect future demand and margins.
“We had great results with R2 becoming our best selling vehicle by volume in the third quarter.”
— Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe, in a statement
Forecast Depends on the R2 Ramp
Rivian’s new range is guidance, not a guarantee, and the supplied report does not give a firm final delivery total. The company must deliver at least 25,193 vehicles in Q4 to reach the low end, but it has not specified how many R2s that would require beyond saying most deliveries are expected to be that model. The report also does not provide a detailed production target or breakdown by trim.
It remains unclear whether the second shift will raise output quickly enough to support both the annual delivery range and the planned improvement in automotive gross margin. Nor does the quarterly loss establish how soon Rivian could reach overall profitability. Those outcomes depend on production, costs and sales through the remaining period.
Watch Fourth-Quarter Output and Margins
The next test is whether Rivian can deliver at least 25,193 vehicles in Q4 and meet its revised annual range. Investors and customers will also be watching whether the second production shift lifts R2 output, whether the company achieves its stated positive automotive gross margin target, and how many of the deliveries are R2s.
Further evidence will come from Rivian’s next delivery and earnings updates. The planned arrival of the Premium and Standard trims may also show whether demand extends beyond the launch version, although the Standard model is not scheduled until 2027, according to the company information in the report.
Key Questions
What is Rivian’s new annual delivery forecast?
Rivian now expects to deliver 67,000 to 70,000 vehicles for the year, raising the lower end from 65,000 while keeping the upper end unchanged.
Why did Rivian raise its forecast?
The company said the R2 outsold its other models by volume in Q3. Rivian also reported a record 19,751 deliveries for the quarter.
How many vehicles does Rivian need to deliver in Q4 to reach the low end?
Based on the figures in the report, Rivian would need at least 25,193 fourth-quarter deliveries to reach 67,000 for the year.
Is Rivian profitable now?
No. Rivian reported a $913 million net loss for the quarter. The company said it expects the R2 ramp to help it reach positive automotive gross margin in Q4, which is not the same as overall profitability.
When are the lower-priced R2 versions expected?
The report says Rivian expects the $53,990 Premium model this year and plans a $44,990 Standard version for 2027. The Performance Launch Edition is priced just under $60,000.
Source: insideevs.com
